by Don Reisinger
March 7, 2008 9:51 AM PST

In the past, I've always felt that Blu-ray would win the high-def format war. After that, I wasn't necessarily sure what the future would hold for the format. Would it be the success DVD was? Would it flop worse than LaserDisc?

Would it cater to a slightly more advanced crowd but never reach the mainstream? Would it be a downright loser? For a while, I decided to hold off from making any judgements until I could see how the Blu-ray group handled its victory. And while it has only been a relatively short amount of time since that win, the end is already in sight and the format has no hope of survival.

As James McQuivey, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research explained to me this week on my Digital Home podcast, Blu-ray isn't quite the shining light on the mountain that some believe it is. Instead, it's a vulnerable product that has considerable work to do before Sony can even think it will stack up to the DVD.

And while all of McQuivey's logic was well-founded and well-researched, I couldn't help but take it a step further and use it as the backbone for my prediction--Blu-ray will die as a forgotten warrior in the long and arduous battle of media formats.