Being a student of climate classes in college I can't help but wonder how NOAA got it so wrong the past two seasons. Granted no one could have seen El Nino (aka the 'Hurricane Killer') being a factor last year (and it was), but what about this year? Wait, that's right - there were a few major storms including some Categories 5's. Least we forget eh? Of course, none of the major storms hit the U.S., so the media and public mostly ignored them. And that's bad news for the U.S.

The last two years our nation has had a mindset about coastal safety much like we did about air safety following 9/11. Of course, fear subsides in time when no new threats keep you, shall we say, aware. The same way many folks now are aggravated by the security of flights - so too will they be aggravated by the government and meteorologists for their 'exaggerated' forecasts these last two years. No doubt some politically-driven folks will shout this is proof global warming is a scam or that science is yet again out to make a buck. These people are all narrow-minded; seeing only the short term picture.

Like I said... I'm not a student of meteorology, but climatology. Climatology looks at the long term records - the big picture if you will. And I can promise you that the lapse in activity these last two years is not a sign of anything other than sheer coincidence. It was by chance that El Nino formed in 2006, and basically pure luck that nothing major hit our borders in 2007. It could have been a lot worse. Consider for a moment the activity of these storms around the world (the big picture) and you'll find anything but a lull in activity.

No doubt many forecasters will feel the need to tame their forecasts next year because of this two-year 'drought' in activity. But I encourage them, in all seriousness, to stick to their guns and forecast what they feel is the true potential of activity in the Atlantic and Pacific basin. The weather guy on the local channel never says he's sorry when he forecasts rain for 5 days and then it's sunny... and it's because he goes by the data that's available. He (or she) makes the best guess. And we need that from the forecasters; their best guess. Hurricanes are not just a passing shower. They are storms that can destroy lives, families, industry, and whole economies. Anything less than a serious forecast could result in disaster. And I seriously hope that the public will heed their warnings each year; the same way we continue to tolerate security in the air. Neither is something we can become 'soft' on. Hopefully we've learned that lesson. Hopefully!