[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

<a href='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1405W+gif/144711W_sm.gif'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1405W_sm2+gif/144711W_sm.gif'></a>

<a href='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200514_sat.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200514_sat.jpg' width='500' height='375'></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES...
WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS
A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.6N 46.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 20.3N 48.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.3N 49.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 51.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.7N 52.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 55.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 33.0N 58.0W 55 KT

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Im safe on this one. Looks like latly they have been going north.

[b_a88]

Im safe on this one. Looks like latly they have been going north.

Well two of the computer models show it starting back more to the west just after the time frame shown in the current track map above but then it is probably far enough north to not be any danger to you.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Im safe on this one. Looks like latly they have been going north.

Well two of the computer models show it starting back more to the west just after the time frame shown in the current track map above but then it is probably far enough north to not be any danger to you.

Yeah, but ususaul the model that they display is more then likely to be the one it goes and close to it.

[b_a88]

Here is the computer models I am refering to.
<a href='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200514_model.gif'target='_blank'><img src='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200514_model.gif' width='500' height='375'></a>

Hopefully those models are wrong and it doesn't decide to come farther west at some point. NOAA's 5-day forecast map shows it heading even farther away from land in day 4 and 5.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

They all look clear for FLA. Once they go higher they usually dont come down.

[b_a88]

They all look clear for FLA. Once they go higher they usually dont come down.

Yep you look to be out in the clear for this one.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

They all look clear for FLA. Once they go higher they usually dont come down.

Yep you look to be out in the clear for this one.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM
MARIA...NO THREAT TO LAND...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH NAMED
CYCLONE OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1185
MILES...1910 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK..MARIA WILL BE MOVING OVER OPEN
WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N... 50.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC