[b_a88]

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ON A TEST FLIGHT
MEASURED STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AT 850 MB TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING IRENE
TO A HURRICANE. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 88 KT...WHICH IN FACT
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 70 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THAT IS THE
ASSIGNED ADVISORY INTENSITY. IRENE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IRENE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS OR SO...AND SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER
THAT TIME AS WELL. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND
MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10. IRENE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WILL SOON BE DEFLECTED TO THE RIGHT BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL HOWEVER...AND IF IRENE TURNS
SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR ANY RAPID
ACCELERATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A MODEST
ACCELERATION UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE SPEED OF
THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY THAT FAST...BUT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

IRENE BECOMES THE SEASON'S THIRD HURRICANE. THE NORMAL NUMBER OF
HURRICANES FORMED BY THIS DATE IS ONE. ONLY ONE YEAR...1966...
HAD MORE HURRICANES FORMED BY THIS POINT IN THE SEASON.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 35.3N 69.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 37.6N 65.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 38.8N 62.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 45.0N 51.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/0000Z 54.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED


HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...IRENE BECOMES THE SEASON'S THIRD HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...35.3 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[imnuts]

took long enough to turn into a hurricane.

[b_a88]

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

AN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK
ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY NEAR 80 KT. THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE
NORTHWEST. IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
RIGHT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DUCKING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES AND
MUCH STRONGER SHEAR THAT LIES TO ITS NORTH. THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST FIELDS...PREDICTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12 HOURS OR SO. WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL STORM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS
LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGEST THAT
IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SOON AS 48-72 HOURS FROM NOW.

AS NOTED ABOVE...IRENE'S TRACK HAS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 070/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED YET...BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...DUE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BASED ON
THE INITIAL MOTION...THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS FASTER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

WIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON
INPUT FROM OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 36.7N 66.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 37.3N 64.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 38.4N 61.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 18/1800Z 50.5N 43.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 19/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED


HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 15 2005

...IRENE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES...
900 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...36.7 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON IRENE AND THE
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE. AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM
THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INTENSITY
TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS PICKED UP TO 050/18...INDICATING
THAT THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TO 28N68W THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS OVER IRENE
FROM THE WEST...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY LOWER SSTS
WITHIN 12 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY
DECOUPLE OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM
BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
ANALYSIS WEB PAGE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD
CONTINUE ACCELERATING IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OUT TO
200 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM VESSEL
ELVX2.

FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 38.5N 56.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 41.1N 52.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 47.1N 46.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 19/0600Z 55.5N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED


TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005

...IRENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 590
MILES... 950 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...38.5 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC