[b_a88]

This storm interests me bc I don't think NOAA has a freakin clue what it's doing or what it's going to do.

I have never seen such inconsistency in their forecasts in my life. It's humorous almost.

I know I've got that feeling too, I even got that feeling with Harvey too. I mean they kept saying how it was getting sheared bad and it was going to go away basically then all of a sudden it reintensified and almost made it to a hurricane.

With this storm it almost seems right now that it may have gotten upgraded to a TS on accident and got given a name on accident.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED AUG 10 2005

...IRENE WEAKENS AT IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT
825 MILES...1325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 475 MILES...
765 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED AUG 10 2005

...IRENE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 455 MILES...
730 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 57.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO
DETERMINE AN EXACT CENTER LCOATION...ESPECIALLY IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...A 24-HOUR
WESTWARD MOTION...AND TRMM AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A 0912Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INTIMATED THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE FARTHER
SOUTH NEAR 21N...BUT I PREFER TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
BETTER DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS FOR SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGER TERM
MOTION HAS BEEN 270/08. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
DISPLAYED A 20-30 DEGREE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 48 HOURS.
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE MODELS HAVE KEPT IRENE WEAK OR
HAVE EVEN DISSIPATED IT...ALL THE WHILE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
HAS BEEN KEEPING THE CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM
UW-CIMSS STILL INDICATE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA WITH
DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SO IN THE
SHORT TERM...A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLE...
BARRING ANY NORTHWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BY
DAYS 4-5...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WITH A HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS ON THE EXTREME LEFT...OR SOUTH ...SIDE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF A WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY AND
THE CENTER DOES NOT REFORM FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE TRACK WILL HAVE
TO BE SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
OR SO. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER IS PRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR...
AS WELL AS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRENE COULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 22.4N 57.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.8N 59.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 23.7N 61.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 24.6N 64.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 25.7N 66.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 27.2N 69.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 60 KT

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005

...IRENE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 975 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.


TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

THE ORGANIZATION OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE AND IN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR MY ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS STRONG.
HOWEVER...A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HARD TO FIND...WITH 06Z
FIXES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SPREAD BY ABOUT 90 NMI...AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AN INHIBITING FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 295/12. 00Z
RAOB DATA AND GLOBAL ANALYSES SHOW A 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING EASTWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
IRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY DAYS 4
AND 5...AND THIS FLOW COULD TURN IRENE NORTHWARD BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COAST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AND
NOGAPS MODELS. EVEN THE BAM MODELS...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN WELL
TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NOW FAVOR A RECURVING TRACK
OFFSHORE. THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES
IRENE...KEEPS ITS REMNANTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...AND THE GFDN ALSO
TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
4 AND 5 DAY POINTS AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT KIND OF
THREAT IRENE COULD POSE FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 24.2N 61.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W 70 KT

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

Lastest Satellite Imagery

Infrared
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg" width="499" height="333"></a>

Shortwave IR
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR2/20.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR2/20.jpg" width="499" height="333"></a>

Dvorak IR
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/BD/20.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/BD/20.jpg" width="499" height="333"></a>

Water Vapor
<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/WV/20.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/WV/20.jpg" width="499" height="333"></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[Stryker762]

Tropical Storm Irene May Become Hurricane
Friday August 12, 2005
Associated Press

MIAMI (AP) -- Tropical Storm Irene was expected to intensify Friday and possibly reach hurricane strength as it approached the U.S. East Coast, forecasters said.

Irene's potential threat to land was still uncertain, as its path had shifted east, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters said the storm could strike the coast anywhere from South Carolina to New Jersey.

Irene's top sustained winds increased to about 60 mph, and forecasters said conditions appeared favorable for the storm to strengthen. Hurricanes sustain winds of at least 74 mph.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was located about 325 miles south of Bermuda and about 795 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.

It was moving northwest near 15 mph, though it was expected to slow down, forecasters said.

Normally, there are only two named storms by this time in the Atlantic hurricane season. Irene became the earliest ninth named storm in the season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, when it developed Sunday.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> Wired News

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> National Hurricane Center

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Doesnt look like this is going to hit the US. And if it does it doesnt look like it will be real bad.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005

...IRENE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON SATELLITE...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK LATER TODAY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE WILL CHECK IRENE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A
MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE
WILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF
IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN
FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW
NEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN
THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO BE CERTAIN.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.3N 66.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W 75 KT

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME.
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN
FACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS
BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL
BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.2N 69.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...IRENE NEARLY A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES... 525 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC