[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...THE SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 935
MILES...1510 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5+gif/144024W_sm.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606W5_sm2+gif/144024W_sm.gif"></a>

<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg" width="500"></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[kanaloa]

Interesting storm, but not likely to hit land if things stay as they are. There's no H to the north, and that means the storm should shoot to the north and back to the east within 72-96 hours.

Now the storm that's forming behind it could be another story... though it's rare for tropical systems to follow so closely on the tail of another and be anything worth talking about. Temps in SST's usually drop in the wake of a storm.

[b_a88]

I don't know but the track of this storm kind of scares me given all the forecasts for the season. You know how many forecasts say the northeast is at a high risk for a hurricane striking up here. I say if any storm has got a chance, given the current projected track up to 5 days out, this storm has got just as good as any at making those forecasts come true. I'm no expert of course but just the general area of the track and given that any thing can happen. A storm in the area could just as easily come straight northward once it starts curving as opposed to continuing out to sea.

[b_a88]

The wind probability map doesn't make me to confident of it turning all the way out to sea.

<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606_PROB34_F120+gif/085433.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0606_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/085433.gif"></a>

[kanaloa]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Of course, if the high pressure formed back over the N. Atlantic, then you're talking about a pretty nasty storm heading east again at a much higher latitude than normal.