[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED
ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME
CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS
DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE
DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
OR IF EXISTS AT ALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.3N 44.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 50 KT



<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1005W5+gif/210109W_sm.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1005W5_sm2+gif/210109W_sm.gif"/></a>
<a href="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200510_sat.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200510_sat.jpg" width="500" height="375"></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather Underground

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

D*mn, here we go.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY
DEFINED.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 1045 MILES...1680 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND
A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES
ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY
320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

Here is the lastest on this system.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[kanaloa]

This sucker aint dead just yet... it's held together way better than expected. I could easily see this storm becoming Jose if it got into an area with better upper ATM conditions (which is where it's heading).

[b_a88]

Again some more info.

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Bad things die hard...

[b_a88]

I can't even believe this.


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

I think it's this.

<img src="http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/3594/ithinkthis7fs.jpg"/>

[kanaloa]

That's it. This thing is the storm that won't go away, LOL