[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 145
MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY
SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION. BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND
HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A
SEASON'S 11TH STORM ON RECORD. RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.

THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND
THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE
CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE
DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A
PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.6N 95.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED


<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1105W+gif/162548W_sm.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1105W_sm2+gif/162548W_sm.gif"/></a>
<a href="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200511_sat.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200511_sat.jpg" width="500" height="375"></a>


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather Underground

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER...
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST
A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS
QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS
AFTER LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS
280/7. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND
BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.8N 96.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED


TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM JOSE NEARING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM... NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN
EYE FORMING. JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS
UNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM
DATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED
JOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS
JOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO. THE COASTAL WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.8N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC


This storm kind of came out of now where fast and became a TS before landfall.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER
5A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

CORRECTED TO READ TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH

...JOSE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM MAY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

LAST UPDATE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...JOSE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND JOSE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JOSE IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD...OR 270/08...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

JOSE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING
...BUT A 12H FORECAST POINT WAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.
ALTHOUGH JOSE IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SLOW
MOVING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE DAY OR TWO.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.7N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 99.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC