[phileysmiley]

SCROLL DOWN FOR UPDATES
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<img src="http://parcom.pronetworks.org/images/0901sat.jpg" align="right">Satellites spot

[Caliptix]

UPDATE
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<img src="http://parcom.pronetworks.org/PROneT-News/News2/news.gif" align="right"> Katrina reignites debate over global warming
September 1, 2005

(AP) -- Hurricane Katrina's fury has reignited the scientific debate over whether global warming might be making hurricanes more ferocious. At least one prominent study suggests that hurricanes have become significantly stronger in the past few decades during the same period that global average temperatures have increased.

Katrina blew up in the Gulf of Mexico to a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 175 mph before slackening a bit Monday when it hit, swamping New Orleans and the Mississippi coast. Other leading scientists agree the Atlantic Basin and Gulf Coast regions are being battered by a severe hurricane phase that could persist for another 20 years or more.

But they believe that a natural environmental cycle is responsible rather than any human-induced change, and they point to what they consider to be large gaps in the global warming analysis conducted by a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Roger Pielke Jr., who studies the social impacts of natural disasters and climate change at the University of Colorado, said any link between the intensity of Katrina and other recent hurricanes and global warming is "premature." Most forecasts suggest climate change would increase hurricane wind speeds by 5 percent or less later in this century.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> CNN News
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/09/01/katrina.warming.ap/index.html target=_blank> complete article</a>

[toddthegeek]

Any of you guys seen that movie "The Day After Tomorrow"? Sure it had bad acting and was cheesy, but it doesn't seem so dumb anymore!

A Tsunami hits Asia, New Orleans gets hit by a hurricane and floods, ice caps keep melting away. I wouldn't be surprised if a tornado hits downtown New York this weekend.

What do you guys think? It could happen.

[Caliptix]

Lets hope not! I really think the gov't will re-think the way they do business!

[b_a88]

Every one should have know this was going to happen to NO eventually because there are many shows out there that talked about and showed what would happen if a big storm hit NO and guess what they were right. There are studies out there that describe exactly what is happening right now before it happened so this is no surprise to any one that knew what would happen if a storm like Katrina hit NO.

If you read the Hurricane Katrina Advisory thread you can see that I was getting worried about where this thing could go with a worry of NO in the back of my mind more and more with every mile the track of Katrina moved west and at one point I say this.

Has any one else seen the latest track? It is quite scary for those around the MS/AL line and it is starting to get dagerously close to New Orleans. If it moves much farther west we could be talking about a huge disaster in New Orleans with tons of flooding. Not looking good.

That is before the first track that showed it going to NO. Then when the first track to show it going for NO came out I said this.

Uh no look at this.

A few posts later this.

Not looking good for New Orleans at all. This could be the storm that floods the city.

And there were other posts along the same lines. At the same time the forecasts were all there saying it was going to be a cat 4 at landfall and it was a cat 4 at the first landfall in southeast LA. I just wish that every one in that area had seen what I was saying then and had listened.

As for this being caused by Global Warming well officially NOAA says no, there is no evidence that this influx in storms and storm strength is related to any thing but a natural up and down cycle were we go through times of increased activity and times of reduced activity. It just so happens that we are going through a time of increased activity. This does not mean it is not enhanced and or prolonged by global warming, it just means we don't have enough info at this time to determine whether global warming is playing a role in this at this time.

[kanaloa]

There's nothing conclusive as was already stated. I'm a climatologist... and while I personally believe there is a likely link, NO, it cannot be proved beyond a doubt.

Hurricanes come in cycles of increased and decreased activity. It depends on the jet, the ocean temps, and things like El Nino or La Nina.

This year the biggest anomoly is the SST's... they are way above normal. That may, MAY, be because of the increased CO2 in the ATM. The ocean acts as a giant "sink" to CO2, which would cause it to warm.

[b_a88]

This year the biggest anomoly is the SST's... they are way above normal. That may, MAY, be because of the increased CO2 in the ATM. The ocean acts as a giant "sink" to CO2, which would cause it to warm.

I thought a few months ago or so a new study said that now global warming was being caused by cleaner air so more sunlight is getting through and warming the earth more. I'll look for the thread, I remember phileysmilie posted it I think and I remember being confused.

EDIT: Here it is. <a href='http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=55126'target='_blank'>Cleaner Air Causing Global Warming</a>

EDIT2:I just read a part in it that says that carbon dioxide lasts in the air for a century so I guess I am wrong.

[phileysmiley]

You all make very valid statements. In fact, just as John is a climatologist, I have a degree in Geology and my specialty was beach topography (hurricanes and other storms and their effect on the coastline). 30 years ago ( ) I was studying this and Global Warming has been a hotly debated topic from about the early 1970's.

Twinte1 is basically correct. This should be no surprise to anyone who has studied this. Many scientists have predicted for quite some time that storms of this nature would be worsening. Although the tsunami was triggered by an eartjquake and not necessarily related to climate, certainly the sea level had changed around those islands while the population had increased. Not exactly a recipe for eternal harmony with nature.

b_a88 is also correct. Anyone who has seen the show Megastructures on the National Geographic Channel saw the episode about the New Orleans levee and pump system, which of course was basically about what would happen if the levees were breached. It has been a subject of discussion for decades and this was certainly not a surprise to anyone who has studied it.

And finally, as kanaloa stated and b_a88 reiterated, there is still some debate over whether or not Global Warming is actually affecting our climate. Althogh a brief scan of this Weather forum will show many many articles about it, including some recent ones which stated, unequivocally, "the debate is over." Nothing can ever truly be "proven" in science, only believed to be true based on the weight of the evidence, and most scientists now believe that this is no longer a theory but a fact.

And yes, there are up and down cycles and we are in an up cycle, but if you look at these cycles over thousands and even millions of years, you will see that the "up" cycles have dramatically gone higher in the time since the Industrial Age began around 1900.

[b_a88]

b_a88 is also correct. Anyone who has seen the show Megastructures on the National Geographic Channel saw the episode about the New Orleans levee and pump system, which of course was basically about what would happen if the levees were breached. It has been a subject of discussion for decades and this was certainly not a surprise to anyone who has studied it.

Wow that wasn't even the show I saw it on, so there are at least two shows about it. The one I saw was on the Science Channel I believe.

[phileysmiley]

b_a88 is also correct. Anyone who has seen the show Megastructures on the National Geographic Channel saw the episode about the New Orleans levee and pump system, which of course was basically about what would happen if the levees were breached. It has been a subject of discussion for decades and this was certainly not a surprise to anyone who has studied it.

Wow that wasn't even the show I saw it on, so there are at least two shows about it. The one I saw was on the Science Channel I believe.

Oh, I'm sure it has been on many shows over the years, Just 6 weeks ago Newsweek magazine did an article on what would happen if the levees broke.