[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

CORRECTED WARNING SECTION

...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND
...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 23.2N 75.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W 65 KT


<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W+gif/204602W_sm.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/204602W_sm.gif"/></a>
<a href="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_sat.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_sat.jpg" width="500" height="375"></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather Underground

[kanaloa]

Long term models show it becomming a Hurricane too

[b_a88]

Long term models show it becomming a Hurricane too

If it's going to be a hurricane it is going to have to do it quick since the track shows it going into Florida and Florida is not that far away from it right now.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Son of a... Coming right for me, i guess you guys will know where i am thursday...

[b_a88]

Son of a... Coming right for me, i guess you guys will know where i am thursday...

Well with the latest forecast it appears it will be a TS at first landfall.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW
THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR
AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND
NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS...
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A
RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN
24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE
SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT
PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.
THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT
EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 270 MILES...
430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.8 MB...29.73 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[kanaloa]

Long term models show it becoming a Hurricane too

If it's going to be a hurricane it is going to have to do it quick since the track shows it going into Florida and Florida is not that far away from it right now.

Meant to say once it emerges in the gulf it had the chance to become a Hurricane. Before Florida only a TS.

The models this morning still show it becoming a HUR too... and in fact it might hit Florida twice, once as a TS on the peninsula and once as a Hurricane on the panhandle.

[kanaloa]

NOAA has updated the system to Tropical Storm Katrina as of 8:05am EST.

Here's the models too BTW...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I still need to get the really long range model, up to 2 weeks in advance.

[kanaloa]

This one looks to be a bit nasty.... getting stronger fast.

<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/145105W_sm.gif">

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE
BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A BETTER RADAR PRESENTATION. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 2300 UTC DID NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND
THE PRESSURE WAS NOT DROPPING. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AND MAKES KATRINA A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SINCE THERE IS LOW SHEAR
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG KATRINA'S PATH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BUT KATRINA COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE IT IS FORECAST THAT KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.0N 78.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC