[b_a88]

Uh no look at this.
<a href='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif'target='_blank'><img src='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif' width='500' height='375'></a>

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF
A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN KATRINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE
NOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND
BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

Not looking good for New Orleans at all. This could be the storm that floods the city.

<center><img src='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/205300W_sm.gif'/></center>

[b_a88]

New info.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

New

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC


It still looks like New Orleans may be in the crosshairs at this moment.

[b_a88]

Latest and it is not good at all.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

Current winds are at 125kt and forecast now to increase to 135kt.

Visable sat.
<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg' width='499' height='333'></a>

Infrared
<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg' width='499' height='333'></a>

Shortwave IR
<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg' width='499' height='333'></a>

Dvorak IR
<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg' width='499' height='333'></a>

Water Vapor
<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg' width='499' height='333'></a>

As you can see it is Dangerous.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

...AT ABOUT 420 AM CDT... 0920Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH. KATRINA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

Another update in about an hour.

[b_a88]

Here is some thing just to show what we are dealing with with this Hurricane.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.

Here is what it is forecast to be.

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

Very very scary. There will not be good news coming out of this.

[b_a88]

CNN says it's a cat 5 and so does The Weather Channel. CNN says 160mph winds.

More info when available.