[b_a88]

I think the GFDL model might have been onto something earlier... NOAA discredited it saying it wasn't likely.

But the system is moving SWS not W. I looked at the model run again, and Katrina is going just like it predicted, or so it seems.

If this model is correct... Katrina could hit the Panhandle as a Cat4 Hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I was just looking at this and that track so far has been exactly where it is going but it shows it intensifying all the way across Florida which is abviously wrong. I think that track is looking like it may be where that thing is going.

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES... 140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

If you see the latest track it is not looking good for that same area that was hit already by IVAN and DENNIS.
Another bad thing is it's moving/moved into the warmest water in the tropics, not good.
I guess there has been four deaths as a result of Katrina thus far aswell.

I'll tell you with the upgrades then downgrades then up again it has kept me busy.

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[kanaloa]

CAT 4 forecast now... Sheeesh

[b_a88]

This thing is kind of weird, it's like it's turned 180

[kanaloa]

This thing is kind of weird, it's like it's turned 180

[kanaloa]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

You can see CAT4 winds in it within a few hours even...

[b_a88]

This thing is kind of weird, it's like it's turned 180

b_a88

PRO SILVER

 

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[b_a88]

Has any one else seen the latest track? It is quite scary for those around the MS/AL line and it is starting to get dagerously close to New Orleans. If it moves much farther west we could be talking about a huge disaster in New Orleans with tons of flooding. Not looking good.

<center><img src='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/205300W_sm.gif'/></center>