[Grav!ty]

Interesting read, note date Oct 2004

http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

That is just plain scary its so accurate

[phileysmiley]

Interesting read, note date Oct 2004

http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

Great find, jojo. I've seen many many articles like this.

Last summer, the government carried out a scenario called Hurricane Pam. They practiced for a disaster which is exactly the same as what happened, even down to the number of people who stayed, left, etc.

See here:
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=519650#519650 target=_blank>Hurricane Pam exercise article</a>

A few years ago, New Orleans biggest newspaper, the Times-Picayune, did a five-part cover story on the exact same scenario.

See here:
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://msnbc.com/modules/imaxfeatures/050908_katrinaOnScene.asp target=_blank>Levee breaks predicted in 2002 article</a> (Video)

Almost 30 years ago, in the mid-70's when I was studying geology in college, we examined what would happen if a hurricane hit New Orleans and the levees broke. It was predicted over and over and over again.

There were scientific models that were done which exactly match the satellite photos and the exact numbers that occurred.

[phileysmiley]

KEEPING ITS HEAD ABOVE WATER
New Orleans faces doomsday scenario
By ERIC BERGER
Dec. 1, 2001, 1:35AM
Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle Science Writer

New Orleans is sinking.

And its main buffer from a hurricane, the protective Mississippi River delta, is quickly eroding away, leaving the historic city perilously close to disaster. So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters facing this country.

The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and, almost prophetically, a terrorist attack on New York City. The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all. In the face of an approaching storm, scientists say, the city's less-than-adequate evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water.

Thousands of refugees could land in Houston. Economically, the toll would be shattering. Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the country's seafood, one-fifth of its oil and one-quarter of its natural gas. The city's tourism, lifeblood of the French Quarter, would cease to exist. The Big Easy might never recover.

And, given New Orleans' precarious perch, some academics wonder if it should be rebuilt at all. It's been 36 years since Hurricane Betsy buried New Orleans 8 feet deep. Since then a deteriorating ecosystem and increased development have left the city in an ever more precarious position. Yet the problem went unaddressed for decades by a laissez-faire government, experts said. "To some extent, I think we've been lulled to sleep," said Marc Levitan, director of Louisiana State University's hurricane center.

Hurricane season ended Friday, and for the second straight year no hurricanes hit the United States. But the season nonetheless continued a long-term trend of more active seasons, forecasters said. Tropical Storm Allison became this country's most destructive tropical storm ever. Yet despite the damage Allison wrought upon Houston, dropping more than 3 feet of water in some areas, a few days later much of the city returned to normal as bloated bayous drained into the Gulf of Mexico. The same storm dumped a mere 5 inches on New Orleans, nearly overwhelming the city's pump system.

If an Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans, or a Category 3 storm or greater with at least 111 mph winds, the results would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said. "Any significant water that comes into this city is a dangerous threat," Walter Maestri, Jefferson Parish emergency management director, told Scientific American for an October article. "Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even want to think about the loss of life a huge hurricane would cause." New Orleans is essentially a bowl ringed by levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River to its south and Lake Pontchartrain to the north. The bottom of the bowl is 14 feet below sea level, and efforts to keep it dry are only digging a deeper hole.

During routine rainfalls the city's dozens of pumps push water uphill into the lake. This, in turn, draws water from the ground, further drying the ground and sinking it deeper, a problem known as subsidence. This problem also faces Houston as water wells have sucked the ground dry. Houston's solution is a plan to convert to surface drinking water. For New Orleans, eliminating pumping during a rainfall is not an option, so the city continues to sink.

A big storm, scientists said, would likely block four of five evacuation routes long before it hit. Those left behind would have no power or transportation, and little food or medicine, and no prospects for a return to normal any time soon. "The bowl would be full," Levitan said. "There's simply no place for the water to drain." Estimates for pumping the city dry after a huge storm vary from six to 16 weeks. Hundreds of thousands would be homeless, their residences destroyed.

The only solution, scientists, politicians and other Louisiana officials agree, is to take large-scale steps to minimize the risks, such as rebuilding the protective delta. Every two miles of marsh between New Orleans and the Gulf reduces a storm surge -- which in some cases is 20 feet or higher -- by half a foot. In 1990, the Breaux Act, named for its author, Sen. John Breaux, D-La., created a task force of several federal agencies to address the severe wetlands loss in coastal Louisiana. The act has brought about $40 million a year for wetland restoration projects, but it hasn't been
enough.

"It's kind of been like trying to give aspirin to a cancer patient," said Len Bahr, director of Louisiana Gov. Mike Foster's coastal activities office. The state loses about 25 square miles of land a year, the equivalent of bout one football field every 15 minutes. The fishing industry, without marshes, swamps and fertile wetlands, could lose a projected $37 billion by the year 2050.

University of New Orleans researchers studied the impact of Breaux Act projects on the vanishing wetlands and estimated that only 2 percent of the loss has been averted. Clearly, Bahr said, there is a need for something much bigger. There is some evidence this finally may be happening. A consortium of local, state and federal agencies is studying a $2 billion to $3 billion plan to divert sediment from the Mississippi River back into the delta. Because the river is leveed all the way to the Gulf, where sediment is dumped into deep water, nothing is left to replenish the receding delta.

Other possible projects include restoration of barrier reefs and perhaps a large gate to prevent Lake Pontchartrain from overflowing and drowning the city. All are multibillion-dollar projects. A plan to restore the Florida Everglades attracted $4 billion in federal funding, but the state had to match it dollar for dollar. In Louisiana, so far, there's only been a willingness to match 15 or 25 cents.

"Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal bailout, but that's just not going to happen," said University of New Orleans geologist Shea Penland, a delta expert. "We have an image and credibility problem. We have to convince our country that they need to take us seriously, that they can trust us to do a science-based restoration program."

[Mac33]

That is an absolutely profound post Larry. To have all this information to hand in 2001, and not be fully prepared for it, is a total disgrace on the city fathers and the powers that be. To treat human life in New Orleans so pitifully by ignoring the bulk of this research is a serious crime as far as i am concerned, and an enquiry as to how this wasn't fully implemented should be completed, and if there's personal wrongdoing by any officials, then they should go on trial for manslaughter in the first degree.

[phileysmiley]

That is an absolutely profound post Larry. To have all this information to hand in 2001, and not be fully prepared for it, is a total disgrace on the city fathers and the powers that be. To treat human life in New Orleans so pitifully by ignoring the bulk of this research is a serious crime as far as i am concerned, and an enquiry as to how this wasn't fully implemented should be completed, and if there's personal wrongdoing by any officials, then they should go on trial for manslaughter in the first degree.

That has crossed my mind a lot in the last few days, as I learn more and more about what was known and should have been done. I think about the Nuremberg Trials, believe it or not, although that doesn't compare, of course -- but just in terms of war crimes trials -- was this not a type of war crime? Perhaps.

[Mac33]

That is an absolutely profound post Larry. To have all this information to hand in 2001, and not be fully prepared for it, is a total disgrace on the city fathers and the powers that be. To treat human life in New Orleans so pitifully by ignoring the bulk of this research is a serious crime as far as i am concerned, and an enquiry as to how this wasn't fully implemented should be completed, and if there's personal wrongdoing by any officials, then they should go on trial for manslaughter in the first degree.

That has crossed my mind a lot in the last few days, as I learn more and more about what was known and should have been done. I think about the Nuremberg Trials, believe it or not, although that doesn't compare, of course -- but just in terms of war crimes trials -- was this not a type of war crime? Perhaps.

Larry it's just as bad as a war crime. We are talking about a whole city desecrated, and the onus for this lies with the city fathers, and whoever directed and implemented this report to be shelved with no action. I read a long time ago about the three major potential disasters of which you quoted earlier, and as charity begins at home firstly, less money should have been spent from the National purse on Wars, and more spent on looking after the American public first and protecting their lives. There's absolutely no excuse in the World for this to happen in New Orleans, and heads should roll for the complacency which is rife in REMA and the total disregard of human life.

[phileysmiley]

Larry it's just as bad as a war crime. We are talking about a whole city desecrated, and the onus for this lies with the city fathers, and whoever directed and implemented this report to be shelved with no action. I read a long time ago about the three major potential disasters of which you quoted earlier, and as charity begins at home firstly, less money should have been spent from the National purse on Wars, and more spent on looking after the American public first and protecting their lives. There's absolutely no excuse in the World for this to happen in New Orleans, and heads should roll for the complacency which is rife in REMA and the total disregard of human life.

What's even more amazing is that it wasn't just this 2001 warning -- there have been reports and studies going back to the 1700's when the levee construction began. 30 years ago when I was in college, we used the flooding of New Orleans as a case study in disaster management. It is used in just about every college course on how America is vulnerable to the forces of nature. It has been incredibly well documented. An overlay of the computer models with what actually happened cannot be distiunguished from each other, right down to the number of people affected.

Just last year, city, state, and federal officials participated in a joint exercise called Hurricane Pam. They used computer models and went through the exact same scenario. It was all written up and reported on a DVD which was distributed to all the appropriate agencies (see here: http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/viewt ... 650#519650). Yet it wasn't taken seriously by the concerned parties and was largely ignored.

A combination of muddled bureaucracy, red tape, lack of money, and turf battles were the main culprits here. This was our first post-911 test of response to a disaster and we failed miserably. We have sent a message to terrorists that we are vulnerable.

[augie]

I was listening to a callin talk show in Montreal and someone said that there were monies allocated in the 2002 budget to bring the levees up to cat 5 standards and was subsequently canceled because of the Iraq war. I tried to find some corroboration and couldn't. I have to admit that my Googling expertise is lacking.

[Mac33]

Quote..We have sent a message to terrorists that we are vulnerable...Unquote

Larry you couldn't have spoken a truer word. The authorities have shown ineptness beyond imagination, and this only gives succour to the terrorists. .