[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON NOAA RECON SFMR REPORTS OF
SURFACE WINDS TO 64 KT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTED BY NOAA-MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT
3000 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 67 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE MOST
RECENT NOAA RECON PRESSURE WHILE COMPOSING THIS DISCUSSION HAS
FALLEN 2 MB IN THE PAST HOUR TO 985 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO KATRINA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN IS FOECAST TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A SLOW
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT MODEL IN TAKING KATRINA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED WIDELY TO THE
WEST AND BRING KATRINA INLAND BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT
GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT MUCH FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KATRINA TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL
...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE HURRICANE EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OVER
THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...RESTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT KATRINA IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL
...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN
CONTRAST...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 90 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE TREND IN THE GFDL MODEL...
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL MAKES KATRINA A 118-KT CATEGORY 4 STORM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 26.1N 79.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...HURRICANE KATRINA MADE LANDFALL ON THE BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE BORDER...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
UPDATE STORM SURGE/TIDE IMPACT
UPDATE WATCH/WARNING SECTION

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...
BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT 7 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL METROPOLITAN
PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
INCLUDING GLADES...HENDRY...WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...AND WESTERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA INCLUDING COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST AT THE BROWARD...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN COLLIER COUNTY...SCHOOLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSED FRIDAY. RESIDENTS OF
MOBILE HOMES ARE RECOMMENDED FOR EVACUATION AND A SHELTER IS OPEN. CHECK
WITH COLLIER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DETAILS.

IN GLADES COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS
BEGAN AT 1 PM TODAY. FOUR GENERAL SHELTERS AND ONE SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER
ARE OPEN.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH LANDFALL HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED...THE STORM TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL RECEDE AND REACH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY 10 PM TONIGHT. LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO HIT
THE OCEAN SHORELINE.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BLOW WATER AWAY
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE AND PILE WATER UP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE AND
IN THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MAINLY FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE...
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 18 TO 19 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...WHILE ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LAKE THE LEVEL COULD DROP TO 13 TO 14 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND...THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST...WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE PILING OF WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE DIFFERENT IF KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WHILE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY...THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE IN COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER BEACHES AROUND 800 PM FRIDAY EVENING NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE PORT EVERGLADES 92 MPH...VIRGINIA KEY 87 MPH...FORT
LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 69 MPH...PEMBROKE PINES 64 MPH...MIAMI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 53 MPH AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SWEETWATER
57 MPH.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS OF AROUND 65 KNOTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MOORE HAVEN AROUND TO
CLEWISTON AND LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE GLADE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BAND...WITH A RAIN RATE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR...REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WHILE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXAMPLES OF SIMILAR FLOODING SLOW MOVING STORMS WERE IRENE IN 1999 AND THE
DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2 2000 WHICH PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING THAT
LASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY...MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE AROUND 7 PM TODAY.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/NWS Miami FL

[Nolez]

Just talked to Karyn's parents and heard the winds as they stuck the phone out the door. They're about 5 mins from Ft. Lauderdale.

It's clear here in Orlando but the wind was blowing pretty good at 5 today.

[b_a88]

Just talked to Karyn's parents and heard the winds as they stuck the phone out the door. They're about 5 mins from Ft. Lauderdale.

It's clear here in Orlando but the wind was blowing pretty good at 5 today.

Wow, I saw on TV Jim Cantore, The Weather Channel, has had to take refuge from a Cat.1 Hurricane and he says this is by far the strongest Cat.1 Hurricane he has seen. He had a gust over 90mph.

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE KATRINA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB... 29.06 INCHES. THE
MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE JUST MEASURED A
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

Hasn't seem to have fallen off as much as of yet.

[b_a88]

With how far this thing is going off the forecast track I would have to say if you are near by the Gulf of Mexico please stay alert with this thing because it could conceivably end up any where in the Gulf and it could be a very significant storm at the second landfall, it's better to be safe than sorry.

EDIT: I was just thinking last night what if it starts going to the south side of that track and then to the left side of the track they have and realized if that happened it would hit in the same area Ivan and Dennis did.

[Nolez]

Yeah, it looks like it's taking the shortest route possible across the state which means HELLO Gulf and increased strength. Question is....does it hook up to the Panhandle or decide it wants to go back out to the Atlantic and cross Central Florida?

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
HOMESTEAD.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES. EARLIER THIS EVENING A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECORDED
AT MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND 81 MPH AT THE TAMIAMI AIRPORT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY
NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS
SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.5N 80.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION AND
TO DISCONTINUE WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

...KATRINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE PASSING OVER MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN SOON OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
...CHANGES TO WARNINGS ALONG FLORIDA EAST COAST...

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM BOCA RATON
NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA TO FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE KATRINA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC