[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z THU AUG 25 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 78.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 78.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 78.0W


TROPICAL STORM KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.0N 79.5W 55 X X X 55 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
26.0N 80.5W 30 1 X 1 32 KEY WEST FL 4 9 2 2 17
26.3N 81.5W 14 9 1 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL 11 10 1 2 24
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 FT MYERS FL 8 11 3 1 23
MUSN 216N 826W X X 1 1 2 VENICE FL 1 12 5 3 21
MUHA 230N 824W X 3 2 2 7 TAMPA FL 1 8 6 4 19
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 7 8 16
MYAK 241N 776W 1 X 1 2 4 ST MARKS FL X X 1 10 11
MYNN 251N 775W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9
MARATHON FL 11 6 1 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL 32 1 X X 33 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL 28 1 1 X 30 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL 15 6 1 2 24 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 8 5 4 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 11 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 8 13 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6
CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC


I can't believe how fast this thing is intensifying, it is forecast to be a Hurricane at first landfall now.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

I now what ill do ill be a Pronetworks storm reporter. I mean i do live in Florida and thats where the hurricanes are. Ill be a in storm reporter and take pictures for you guys.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 33 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.


TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW ISOLATED DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 68
KT AT 9000-10000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THE
AVERAGE DOPPLER VELOCITIES OVER A 1-NMI STRETCH HAVE BEEN AROUND 55
KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 50-KT SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WITH SFMR CAPABILITY IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA...
AND A RECENT REPORT INDICATES THE PRESSURE IS NOW LOWER AT 990 MB.
HOWEVER... THIS PRESSURE DROP HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS
CREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS
KATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48
HOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME
DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
KATRINA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
INTO THE INNER CORE AND HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE AND
MIAMI INDICATE NUMEROUS SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE LARGE DRY SLOT TO THE NORTH...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OVER THE VERY
WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...KATRINA COULD
STILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.2N 79.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND


<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 12 PM EDT...1600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST
...OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND KATRINA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTY FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC


It is now very very close to being a Hurricane.

[b_a88]

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE
NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI.

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS
WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA
RATON FLORIDA.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

I just switched on the weather channel and it appears that Hurricane Katrina is making landfall now.

[b_a88]

Radar image
<a href="http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/spec_trop7_720x486.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/spec_trop7_720x486.jpg" width="500" height="375"></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> Weather.com

[kanaloa]

I think the GFDL model might have been onto something earlier... NOAA discredited it saying it wasn't likely.

But the system is moving SWS not W. I looked at the model run again, and Katrina is going just like it predicted, or so it seems.

If this model is correct... Katrina could hit the Panhandle as a Cat4 Hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[b_a88]

I think the GFDL model might have been onto something earlier... NOAA discredited it saying it wasn't likely.

But the system is moving SWS not W. I looked at the model run again, and Katrina is going just like it predicted, or so it seems.

If this model is correct... Katrina could hit the Panhandle as a Cat4 Hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Oh no that don't sound good.

I think NOAA under estimated this storm at first lanfall because there were higher winds recorded than what the storm was supposed to be packing.