[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT1 TO AT3

...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

<a href='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W+gif/025617W_sm.gif'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W_sm2+gif/025617W_sm.gif'/></a>
<a href='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_sat.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_sat.jpg' width='500' height='375'></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather Underground

[phileysmiley]

<img src="http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2005/WEATHER/09/18/tropical.weather/story.hurricanes.noaa.jpg" align="right">UPDATE
--------------------------------------
Hurricane watch issued for Florida Keys
Tourists ordered to evacuate
Sunday, September 18, 2005; Posted: 1:40 p.m. EDT (17:40 GMT)

(CNN) -- After the National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys, mandatory evacuations of non-residents south of the Seven Mile Bridge in the lower Keys began at noon Sunday, the Florida Emergency Operations Center said.

Tropical Depression 18 formed late Saturday near the Bahamas, and the hurricane center forecasts the storm will intensify as it moves west toward the Keys, Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane watch extends from Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry Tortugas, which means hurricane conditions and sustained winds of 74 mph or more are possible within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch also is in effect for the northwest Bahamas. The storm had top sustained winds of 35 mph, but forecasters predicted it would gain intensity and become Tropical Storm Rita by Monday morning and reach hurricane status by Tuesday morning. At 11 a.m. ET Sunday, the storm was about 390 miles east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and was moving west at near 12 mph, according to the hurricane center.

The storm should move over the eastern and central Bahamas later today. The hurricane center's advisory said up to 8 inches of rain might fall in the Bahamas. Forecasters said the storm's projected path would take it through the Straits of Florida between South Florida from Cuba. By Wednesday morning, the storm could become a hurricane and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> CNN
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/18/tropical.weather/index.html target=_blank>complete article</a>

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...CORRECTED TO ADD RAINFALL STATEMENT...

...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[Jess]

Uh oh, some friends of mine are down there on a cruise. Right in the middle of the Keys, and all of the area right where the path is predicted

[b_a88]

From Advisory Number 5

...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

Also take a look at the Computer models, one model shows a very bad situation as you can see.
<a href='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif'target='_blank'><img src='http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif' width='499' height='375'></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather Underground

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Looks like Im clear for this one.

[phileysmiley]

<img src="http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2005/WEATHER/09/18/tropical.weather/story.noaa.1115p.sun.jpg" align="right">UPDATE
------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Rita gaining muscle
Monday, September 19, 2005; Posted: 12:33 a.m. EDT (04:33 GMT)

(CNN) -- Tropical Storm Rita gained strength off the Bahamas late Sunday, triggering hurricane warnings across the Bahamas, Cuba and southern Florida and prompting evacuations in the lower Florida Keys.

Forecasters upgraded earlier watches to warnings late Sunday night, putting all of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas under that advisory. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the area within 36 hours.

An Air Force Reserve plane clocked top winds of 50 mph, and the storm was expected to strengthen in the next 24 hours, forecasters said. At 11 p.m. ET, Rita was located about 295 miles east-southeast of the Bahamian capital Nassau, moving northwest at about 10 mph, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center reported.

At this speed and course, Rita will move over the southeast and central Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. It is the 17th named storm of this year's Atlantic hurricane season. With water temperatures in the Florida Straits in the high 80s, it has plenty of fuel. "Rita could become a Category 1 hurricane by late Monday," the center reported.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> CNN
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/18/tropical.weather/index.html target=_blank>complete article</a>

[b_a88]

Most of the lines in the computer models have changed except the light blue one and the yellow one that is scary. So it is looking more like a US landfall than from the last batch of models.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Ditto the yellow one.

[b_a88]

Ditto the yellow one.

Joe Bastar di said back when Katrina was coming in that that exact track would be a worst case senario for NO.

--------------------------------------
Edited by phileymiley