[b_a88]

From Advisory Number 23

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

RITA IS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THIS MORNING...AS
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED THAT THE INNER 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAD DISSIPATED AND A SINGLE
33 N MI WIDE EYE EXISTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE 125-130 KT...WHICH HELPS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT ANOTHER
WIND MAXIMA HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT
BE THE START OF ANOTHER OUTER EYEWALL. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB.

RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN 300-305 DEGREES AT 8-9 KT. RAWINSONDE DATA
AT 00Z INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT OVER
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HR...ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED ABOUT A LANDFALL ON THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ROUGHLY 30 HR...WITH THE MODEL TRACK BEING
SPREAD BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SABINE PASS. THE FORECAST TRACK
UP TO LANDFALL IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE GUIDANCE BECOME VERY DIVERGENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF RITA. GIVEN THE
SPREAD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HR
JUST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID. THIS STALLING WILL POSE A
SERIOUS RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS
COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 12 HR. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...
POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL.
THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE SHEAR REACHES THE 25 KT VALUES FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 26.8N 91.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 27.6N 92.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 28.9N 93.6W 120 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.4N 94.6W 80 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90
KM... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

<a href='http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop07_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/spec_trop7_277x187.jpg'/></a>

<a href='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg'target='_blank'><img src='http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg' width='500' height='375'></a>

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC/Weather.com

[b_a88]

From Advisory Number 26B

...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...NORTHERN
EYEWALL HAS SPREAD ONSHORE...

AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA ONTO THE COAST NEAR SABINE PASS IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER LANDFALL...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 93.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA.

THE CENTER OF RITA MADE LANDFALL AT 230 AM CDT ON THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S
BAYOU.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[b_a88]

TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO BECOME A RAIN MAKER IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TODAY. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND
RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE TRACK OF RITA... OVER LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND
ARKANSAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...32.1 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[ma3574]

Happy Birthday mate

[b_a88]

Happy Birthday mate

Thanks.

[b_a88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...
OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND
RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RITA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE TRACK OF RITA... OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ARKANSAS... AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...33.0 N... 93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

[ma3574]

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO THE EAST
OF THE TRACK OF RITA... OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ARKANSAS... AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

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