HURRICANE RITA-LANDFALL, SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S BAYOU

by **phileysmiley** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:55 am

I'm a bit surprised it hasn't crossed the 74 MPH threshhold yet, but it's just labels anyway. But Joe is just one forecaster and as Kanaloa has said, there are many models, some more reliable than others. We will just have to wait and see.

by **b_a88** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:02 am

From Advisory Number 10

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

by **augie** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:49 pm

Oh man, CNN just reported it's a CAT 2 with 100MPH winds. Wow with everything going against them ATM, full moon, high tide and storm surge they don't seem to be too bad off.

by **phileysmiley** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:02 pm

<img src="http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2005/WEATHER/09/20/rita/story.rita.sat.0920.1045.jpg" align="right">UPDATE
------------------------------------
Rita strengthens to Category 2
Keys residents told to 'hunker down'
Tuesday, September 20, 2005; Posted: 4:13 p.m. EDT (20:13 GMT)

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Rita strengthened to a Category 2 storm Tuesday as it pounded the Florida Keys with heavy rain and strong wind. People still in the Keys were told Tuesday it was too late to flee. A reconnaissance aircraft measured maximum sustained winds of 100 mph 160 kph). Category 2 storms have winds of 96 to 110 mph (154 to 177 kph).

At 2 p.m. ET, the storm was centered 50 miles (80 kilometers) southeast of Key West and 65 miles (105 kilometers) east-northeast of Havana, Cuba. Rita was moving west at 15 mph (24 kph), with hurricane-force winds extending out 30 miles (48 kilometers) from its center. The storm had been moving to the north-northwest.

Radar indicated that Rita had spawned tornadoes near Hollywood, Florida, and a water spout or tornado near Islamorada, in the upper Keys. Thousands of residents of the Keys moved to safer territory ahead of the storm, but officials said Tuesday those who remain should not try to leave now. "If you've not left the Keys, stay where you are," Gov. Jeb Bush said in a briefing on the hurricane.

"Now is the time to hunker down. As we say, 'Turn around, don't drown,' " he added. High winds and sheets of rain lashed the Keys on Tuesday morning as squall lines from Hurricane Rita moved through. President Bush, the governor's older brother, issued a federal emergency declaration for the state of Florida, ordering federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts there.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> CNN
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/20/rita/index.html target=_blank>complete article</a>

by **phileysmiley** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:03 pm

UPDATE
-----------------------------
BREAKING NEWS: Hurricane Rita expected to reach category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico by 2 PM tomorrow, forecasters say.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> CNN

by **InsaneScientist** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:10 pm

Oh that's not good.... :no

by **ma3574** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:18 pm

Oh no cat 4

by **b_a88** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:59 pm

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

by **phileysmiley** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:05 pm

UPDATE
--------------------------------------
Hurricane Rita heads to the Gulf
6:07 p.m. ET 9/20/2005
Tom Moore, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

An unofficial reading from Key West clocked a wind gust from Hurricane Rita at 102 mph but overall the strongest part of Rita was closer to the coast of Cuba as the storm passed through the Florida Straits. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Keys and all along the south Florida coast from just south of Florida City (on the southeast coast) to Chokoloskee on the southwest coast.

Rain bands and isolated tornadoes are still possible in the Keys and also farther north across the southern end of the peninsula. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels is forecast for the Keys in areas of onshore flow. Heavy surf is accompanying the surge and some roads are under water. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches are expected, although isolated amounts of up to 12 inches are possible.

Rita is forecast to continue on a westward track into the Gulf of Mexico and may become a major (category 3) storm on Wednesday. Later in the week, Rita is expected to shift to a more northwesterly course. Residents of the Texas Gulf Coast should be prepared for a significant hurricane on Friday night or saturday.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> MSNWeather/The Weather Channel
<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/view.jpg" border="0"> <a href=http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news target=_blank>complete article</a>

by **b_a88** on Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:50 pm

From Advisory Number 13A

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RITA
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL TO
MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/forum/images/smiles/source.jpg"> NOAA/NHC

HURRICANE RITA-LANDFALL, SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S BAYOU

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