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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...A
SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25-KT INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24-36
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT.
THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN 84 TO 96 HOURS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 5...
THE RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN AND POSSIBLY TURN THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINCIAN REPUBLIC.
THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR
29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO.
<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/025038W_sm.gif">
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