[kanaloa]

Wow... check out the new eye...

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg">

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Wow, yesterday it looked like crap. Now its got a nice eye.

[b_a88]

Winds now 115.

[b_a88]

Latest

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580
MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

[b_a88]

Here is the current computer models and it don't look good for Texas at the moment with a cat four coming thier way.
<center><img src="http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_model.gif"/></center>

[kanaloa]

TWO CATEGORY 4 STORMS!!! In July! Hoooly crap who'd have thunk it.

[b_a88]

TWO CATEGORY 4 STORMS!!! In July! Hoooly crap who'd have thunk it.

It's absolutely unbeleivable. This is going to be one heck of a year and I hope that even more weird thing don't happen like a big storm coming up here but I can't say for sure it won't happen, it would be disastrous, can you imagine a big storm hitting New York City, it would flood the whole city.

I hope it calms down but I don't think it will at this rate.

Man I need to get the spell check tool again because I had a heck of a time writing this.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Its gonna make it close to cat 5. At this pace with cat 4 storms in july their going to have to make a cat 6 for the rest of hurricane season.

[kanaloa]

I saw something yesterday also about a Cat3-5 hitting New Orleans... wow, city be gooone.

With parts of the city up to 5 feet below sea level, you have to seriously wonder. The whole city is surrounded by water and the bridge that gets you out of the city would be under 3 foot of water in a Cat4-5 storm surge (sheesh).

They say it's a catastrophe waiting to happen.

While not impossible for a Hurricane to hit NY or even Canada, it's rare and would take absolutely perfect conditions. Dr. Mock and I were discussing this the other day... it's just not likely a big storm will hit that far north. It's happen before, but most storms are weaker and typically aren't nearly the "punch" they are when they hit down south in warmer waters.

One other fascinating thing about Dennis BTW... where a hurricane normaly cools the ocean after passing through (and watching the SST chart of this is AWESOME... the blue line follows the hurricane path), Dennis actually warmed the SST's. Very very strange.

[b_a88]

I saw something yesterday also about a Cat3-5 hitting New Orleans... wow, city be gooone.

With parts of the city up to 5 feet below sea level, you have to seriously wonder. The whole city is surrounded by water and the bridge that gets you out of the city would be under 3 foot of water in a Cat4-5 storm surge (sheesh).

They say it's a catastrophe waiting to happen.

While not impossible for a Hurricane to hit NY or even Canada, it's rare and would take absolutely perfect conditions. Dr. Mock and I were discussing this the other day... it's just not likely a big storm will hit that far north. It's happen before, but most storms are weaker and typically aren't nearly the "punch" they are when they hit down south in warmer waters.

One other fascinating thing about Dennis BTW... where a hurricane normaly cools the ocean after passing through (and watching the SST chart of this is AWESOME... the blue line follows the hurricane path), Dennis actually warmed the SST's. Very very strange.

I've also heard what a catastrophe it would be for a hurricane to hit New Orleans.

Also I was saying that with all this weird stuff happening I don't know how any thing can be completely ruled out from happening, I mean just as you said who would have thunk of two cat four hurricanes in July.