[b_a88]

Well the lastest advisory is about the same as the last, still 50mph winds.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Now theres 2 tropical waves behind emily.

[b_a88]

The winds are now 60mph and the pressure dropped again.

[kanaloa]

I really am suprised at the new wave coming together so fast.

Emily is really almost out of the picture for the US... it'll likely hit Mexico. The ridge of pressure over NA is steering it into the Yukatan and South Carribean.

I have the feeling the storm is going to get really strong, really fast here soon. It's been kinda weak over the last few days (Emily I mean).

[e to the x]

I really am suprised at the new wave coming together so fast.

Emily is really almost out of the picture for the US... it'll likely hit Mexico. The ridge of pressure over NA is steering it into the Yukatan and South Carribean.

I have the feeling the storm is going to get really strong, really fast here soon. It's been kinda weak over the last few days (Emily I mean).

My coworker has a vacation in Cancun coming up next week. I think she might be a bit dissapointed.

[kanaloa]

This storm is either going to boom or bust. It's WAY WAY to far south still... it's almost going to brush SA, and if it stays this low the warm waters originally forecast to make it stronger will never touch it.

The ridge to the north must be stronger than thought, as NOAA mentions in the 11am update.

If this storm doesn't pull North, it'll be almost nothing in a day or so.

[b_a88]

The hurricane warnings have been downgraded since the storm is not strengthening as they expected it would.

[b_a88]

Emily is now a Hurricane. Last night Emily rapidly intensified and now has 90 mph winds.

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY NEAR GRENADA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST OR VERY NEAR
GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N... 61.5W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

Also I just looked at the latest computer models and one of the tracks brings it twards Texas.

[kanaloa]

I guess it's safe to say she decided to boom instead of bust...

I have the feeling the storm is going to get really strong, really fast here soon.

Here's the 5am discussion. Two of the models now show a good, if not more than decent impact for Texas, including one around Galveston. But looks like Mexico will get a double-wamy. Plus Cancun I think will take a direct hit. Rather odd for two systems to hit Mexico in a row like this. First Bret and now Emily.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140845
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

OBSERVATIONS FROM GRENADA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE
ISLAND AROUND 07Z...AT WHICH TIME THE OBSERVING SITE WAS REPORTING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH A PRESSURE OF 993 MB.

AFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE OBSERVED YESTERDAY
EVENING...EMILY NOW APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AT A MORE MODERATE
PACE. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY CENTRAL PRESSURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF RECON FIXES BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 12Z. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
SYMMETRICAL WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED
TO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE PATH OF EMILY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...STRENGTHENING SEEMS
INEVITABLE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND...AS NOTED EARLIER...COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

BASED ON THE RECON FIXES AND THE GRENADA OBS...THE MOTION NOW
APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/16. MY TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF EMILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD FORCE A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. TRACK PREDICTION MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT
DIFFER ON SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER. SOME MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFDL
AND GFS...INDICATE AN EVEN FASTER MOTION.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT

[kanaloa]

Another update:

HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWER PRESSURE IN EMILY...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980 MB...A DROP OF 11 MB SINCE THEIR
LAST REPORT. AS YET THEY HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN EMILY'S
WINDS...HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE FALL IS AN INDICATION THAT A
STRENGTHENING TREND IS BEGINNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN