[b_a88]

That could be another Tropical Wave behind TD 5.

Man this getting a little ridiculous at this point.

[kanaloa]

That could be another Tropical Wave behind TD 5.

Man this getting a little ridiculous at this point.

It's confirmed.... 11am Tropical Update, right after the part about TD5 there is this:

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR
JULY...WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[kanaloa]

It's official... Emily is a Tropical Storm and has, and I quote, "Very favorable conditions ahead of it."

We'll likely see a Cat2 or higher within 120 hours (Sat). This is just unbelievable for this time of year this far out into the Atlantic.

And right on it's heels is what will likely become another Tropical Depression 6; right now it's a very strong tropical wave (that's very far to the south), but if it goes North, and follows Emily... it definately could see development.

Just incredible....

The forecast track for Emily BTW was adjusted to the North... meaning at the current rate of curvature, Florida is likely under the gun again, as is the other side (NE) Cuba.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

As you guys said theres another behind it. Thats it. Anyone have a place for my to stay for 3 months? I can bring my own computer.

[b_a88]

Does this from the Tropical Storm Emily Forecast/Advisory Number 5 mean that current wins are 60mph if my math is correct?

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

[kanaloa]

I haven't seen that yet, but I'll look again. Given they are strictly using models to "guess" at the speed of the storm, it's hard to say much as this point. Until it gets closer they won't even think of sending the HurHunter out to intercept it.

I'm going out on a limb here, but I think this storm could easily get to Cat3 status if it comes into the Caribbean right... meaning doesn't get tangled up with the land much. After it gets into the gulf it's likely to go North, meaning either Florida or the same area that just hit Dennis could be under the gun.

[b_a88]

I must have read some thing wrong or interpreted it wrong since the lastest advisory says there is 50mph winds.

[kanaloa]

Cat 3 in a few days too... looks like it's coming together better than expected.

Forecast models pointing WAY further South than originally... and the Tropical Wave behind it fell apart. On the other hand, a new wave has formed... so that'll be worth a watch.

[kanaloa]

Update

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

Btw John, nice avatar.