Hurricane Emily - Hurricane #2 in 2005
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Postby kanaloa on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:46 am

mfwit wrote:Great, my family and I leave on thursday to head down to vero beach, fla. I really hope this doesnt become a problem there.


Guess that depends on when you leave, LOL. TD5 seems to be picking up speed a little, but even by Sunday it should only be in the North Carribean (as of this point anyway).
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Postby b_a88 on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:48 am

Shouldn't the new advisory be out? It's almost an hour late by my clock, well 45min. It's not at either place yet although as I was typing this a new discussion popped up on my rss reader and that's ahead of time. :confused
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Postby mfwit on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:50 am

We are staying at my uncles house in SC til saturday morning then heading down to vero beach and staying til next friday....

Looks like we will be in for a good time. :no
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Postby kanaloa on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:52 am

mfwit wrote:We are staying at my uncles house in SC til saturday morning then heading down to vero beach and staying til next friday....

Looks like we will be in for a good time. :no


Monday Forecast: Windy
Tuesday Forecast: Windier
Wednesday Forecast: Windiest
Thursday Forecast: What the *beep* is this
Friday Forecast: *beep* *beep* Blue Sky *beeping* *beep*


LOL, most people won't even get the "Blue Sky" part. :lol:
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Postby kanaloa on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:53 am

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 11, 2005



visible imagery reveals that the depression is not well organized...
with a low-level circulation located along the eastern edge of the
deep convection...about 80 nm to the east of the mid-level turning.
A Quikscat pass at 09z suggested that this small low-level
circulation may merely be a swirl embedded within an ill-defined
broader low. Improved banding features to the southwest over the
past few hours also suggest that it is the broader low that may
ultimately prevail. Rather than jerk the track back to the east to
follow the swirl...I prefer to follow the broader system at this
time. The poor organization of the system...and Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB of t2.0...are good reasons not to
upgrade the depression to a tropical storm.
While there is presently some easterly shear with this system...as
well as marginal thermodynamics...the environment is expected to
become more favorable for development in both regards over the next
few days. Given this...slow but steady strengthening is
anticipated over the next 72 hours...and the official forecast is
in good agreement with SHIPS and GFDL guidance. The GFDL...which
develops the depression only slowly at first...continues to make
the cyclone a significant hurricane in the Caribbean.
The initial motion estimate continues to be 270/10. Some increase in
forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone moves away from the
influence of broad cyclonic flow over the eastern Atlantic and
becomes more embedded in a deep easterly steering current. The
official forecast...which is a little south of the previous
forecast...is a blend of the GFDL and NOGAPS models. It is perhaps
of interest to note that the NOGAPS...which had only a so-so year
last year...is currently the best performing Atlantic track model
so far in 2005...and the FSU superensemble...which won hands down
last year...is struggling a bit.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 10.3n 44.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 10.4n 46.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 10.8n 48.9w 40 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 11.5n 52.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 12.2n 55.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 14.0n 61.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 15/1200z 16.5n 67.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 16/1200z 19.0n 73.0w 70 kt
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Postby imnuts on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:53 am

don't forget to take your rain gear along
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Postby b_a88 on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:54 am

Oh the advisory is out it is basically the same as the last one. Just a slight drop in pressure.
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 - Emily - Forecast to be Hurricane

Postby kanaloa on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:59 am

kanaloa wrote:<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0505W5_sm2+gif/025038W_sm.gif">


NOAA's on the ball this morning...
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Postby ginogsm on Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:02 am

kanaloa wrote:
mfwit wrote:We are staying at my uncles house in SC til saturday morning then heading down to vero beach and staying til next friday....

Looks like we will be in for a good time. :no


Monday Forecast: Windy
Tuesday Forecast: Windier
Wednesday Forecast: Windiest
Thursday Forecast: What the *beep* is this
Friday Forecast: *beep* *beep* Blue Sky *beeping* *beep*


LOL, most people won't even get the "Blue Sky" part. :lol:


:() :() Wow. I would like to hear the forecast for Saturday please. :whistle
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Postby kanaloa on Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:03 am

Check this out too:

<img src="http://www.pronetworks.org/main/images/blurb/Hur-07-11-05.jpg">

That could be another Tropical Wave behind TD 5.
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