[DRAGON OF DARKNESS]

We grow trees strong down here. lol

[b_a88]

The latest update puts the winds at 35mph now which is only a few mph away from Tropical Storm strength.

[kanaloa]

I don't think it is officially Emily yet but I am sure it will be with in the next day.

Nope not yet... but it's gettin close. It's getting sheared a bit from what I read... so that's hindering a lot of growth, but that should stop in the next 24hrs. I suspect by the 11am update or definately by the 5pm update today it'll be a Tropical Storm.

Hard to believe this could be our second Hurricane of July... JULY!! Sheesh.

[b_a88]

I don't think it is officially Emily yet but I am sure it will be with in the next day.

Nope not yet... but it's gettin close. It's getting sheared a bit from what I read... so that's hindering a lot of growth, but that should stop in the next 24hrs. I suspect by the 11am update or definately by the 5pm update today it'll be a Tropical Storm.

Hard to believe this could be our second Hurricane of July... JULY!! Sheesh.

From what I read it was a very light amount of shearing but it was still expected to continue to slowly but steadily increase in intensity.

[kanaloa]

Doesn't take much to keep it from growing though. I immagine once it's a TS they'll send the Hurricane Hunter out to intercept it to get a better feel for it. Seems they can't even find the center of cirulation as of the 5am update.

[b_a88]

Doesn't take much to keep it from growing though. I immagine once it's a TS they'll send the Hurricane Hunter out to intercept it to get a better feel for it. Seems they can't even find the center of cirulation as of the 5am update.

I wonder if thats why the 5am update was like a half hour late. It was supposed to come out at 5am AST which would be 4am EDT but it didn't come out until about a half hour later than 4am EDT.

[kanaloa]

Doesn't take much to keep it from growing though. I imagine once it's a TS they'll send the Hurricane Hunter out to intercept it to get a better feel for it. Seems they can't even find the center of circulation as of the 5am update.

I wonder if thats why the 5am update was like a half hour late. It was supposed to come out at 5am AST which would be 4am EDT but it didn't come out until about a half hour later than 4am EDT.

NOAA gets slack... and here's the funny part. Weather Underground uses NOAA data, and they usually have the updates on their site about (on average) a half hour before NOAA, that includes discussions, forecast maps, etc. NOAA gives out the "press release" to everyone before they even make the data live on their own site (why, you're guess is as good as mine).

One thing I like about Weather Underground is the fact they show all the model data... the forecast models and what they all are saying.

I have several other maps (wind maps, atm pressure maps, etc) that I used in college, but NOAA makes it a lot easier to understand everything in their discussions. It's just getting past some of their teminology and abbreviations... most people think it's jibberish, LOL.

"POPs is showing up stronger than previously and GOES is showing increase cloud convection..."

[b_a88]

Thanks for the heads up on Weather Underground. They have a ton of maps which most I have no clue what they mean. I did notice the computer models for this storm and most show it ending up in about the same place Dennis was at.

[kanaloa]

The further out those models get though... it's like throwing a dart at a dart board a mile away. If you even hit the board you did good, LOL

They are getting better... but the number of variables involves just creates chances I doubt we'll ever be able to predict.

Insurance companies want to know how many each year and where... but that's impossible for the most part. Dennis for example was driven by two pressure systems... one over Texas/Mexico and the other a Bermuda High. Had the Bermuda High weakened, Dennis would have plowed right into Florida, and had the high disappeared, Dennis wouldn't have even made landfall in the US. Those are the big variables... and there are so many small ones it makes your head spin. LOL, that's why we let computers try to figure it out; but sometimes I worry that's half the problem. The average time to run some of those models isn't minutes, but hours... and these are some of the biggest super computers the government can buy. Would make a mathematician proud

I will say they did do a preeety good job with Dennis though. I was impressed.

[mfwit]

Great, my family and I leave on thursday to head down to vero beach, fla. I really hope this doesnt become a problem there.