UPDATE
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By KEN KAYE
sun-sentinel.com
It might seem too early to be under siege again, but guess what: Tropical Storm Dennis is lurking out there.
Dennis emerged in the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday morning and was forecast to grow into a Category 1 hurricane and aim toward western Cuba.
For now, South Florida is not the primary target as the system was expected to aim into Gulf of Mexico, west of the Florida peninsula.
If it holds to that track, this region still could see winds and rain because it would be on the strong side of the storm. If so, the system's outer bands could reach this area by Friday or Saturday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.
"It depends on the speed and the track," said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch, but added: "It's too early to speculate."
At 11 a.m. Tuesday, Dennis was about 355 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, or about 1,200 miles southeast of Miami. It was galloping west-northwest at almost 18 mph with sustained winds of almost 40 mph - just barely tropical storm strength.
Although South Florida needs to be on guard, for now the north Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, appears more under the gun.
That area includes New Orleans, which could be in for an early season double whammy: Tropical Storm Cindy was projected to make landfall near the mouth of Mississippi River, south of New Orleans either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The good news: Cindy was expected to grow to about 50 mph, well below hurricane strength.
Dennis was expected to intensify relatively quickly as it feeds on the warm waters of the Caribbean, spinning to 86 mph by early Friday, before it reaches Cuba. Though it is projected to remain a relatively weak Category 1 system, intensity projections can contain large errors, forecasters say.
The state's West Coast was warned to keep a close eye as the system because it could take an unexpected turn, similar to Hurricane Charley, which appeared to be headed toward Tampa but bashed Punta Gorda on Aug. 13.
Dennis posed the most immediate threat to the southern shore of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and tropical storm watches have been issued for that region.
The storm was being guided west by a high-pressure ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The tropical system should turn more to the north -- in Florida's general direction -- when it reaches the western edge of the ridge, likely on Friday, forecasters said.
Called the Bermuda High, that is the same ridge that pushed the four hurricanes toward Florida last year, Pasch said. "If the ridge breaks down, there's possibly the system could take a more northerly track," he said.
Meanwhile, at 11 a.m. Tuesday, Cindy was about 165 miles south of the mouth of Mississippi River, moving north at 14 mph with sustained winds of almost 50 mph. The system threatens to leave coastal flooding with a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels. It also could produce 4 to 6 inches or rain over areas in its path.
A tropical storm warning has been posted from the central Louisiana Gulf Coast to Destin, Fla. That is the same region that was slammed by Hurricane Ivan last September and roughed up a bit by Tropical Storm Arlene last month.
With Cindy and Dennis, the season is off to a fast start, with a total of four tropical systems forming by early July. Normally, the first named storm forms on July 11 and the first hurricane on Aug. 14.
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