Could Hurricane Gustav hit New Orleans?
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Postby phileysmiley on Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:54 pm

Grav!ty wrote:Still pretty devastating though with estimates of US$12 Bn in damages. I often wonder how folk keep going back for more. Seems to me one is just getting ready to return home and the next is on the way.

Fortunately (if that's even the right word) the ones which are on the way aren't headed for that area. Hanna is headed for the East Coast and chances are the others will either follow Hanna or fizzle out before they have a chance of getting there.

Most hurricanes go elsewhere. Some hurricane history:

In the 20th century...
158 hurricanes hit the US from all categories; 64 of these were major hurricanes, categories 3-5. Florida had the most landfalls at 57, with the majority of these being in the northwest and southeast. Texas came in second with 36, and Louisiana and North Carolina tie for third at 25 a piece.

<a href="http://miami.about.com/od/weather/a/hur_facts.htm" target="_blank">SOURCE</a>

Of all the recorded hurricanes to hit the U.S. since 1851, 36 percent have made landfall in Florida.

<a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hc-canehistory1,0,3352010.special" target="_blank">SOURCE</a>

Since 1900, forty major hurricanes have crossed the Gulf Coast (from Texas to the Florida Panhandle). Seven were of category four intensity (1900, 1919, 1915 (2), 1932, 1957, 1961). Hurricane Frederic (1979) and Hurricane Katrina (2005) were close to category four intensity at landfall. Only one category five hurricane has ever struck the Gulf coast - Camille in 1969.

<a href="http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/gulfcoast.htm" target="_blank">SOURCE</a>

On average, two major hurricane (cat 3-5) strike every three years; in all categories, about five hurricanes make landfall every three years. On average, a hurricane cat 4 or higher only strikes once every six years.

<a href="http://miami.about.com/od/weather/a/hur_facts.htm" target="_blank">SOURCE</a>

John can probably give some more statistics.
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Postby kanaloa on Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:14 pm

I think Ike is the storm to watch out for this year. Models were showing it making it into the gulf before turning north, so that could be a repeat of Gustav. But I suspect Ike will be one of the stronger storms this year - just a gut feeling.

Josephine is doing something I've never seen before, it's NOT turning north. It seemingly is going to head east due a high ridge of pressure north of it and Ike. Ironically another bout of high pressure is currently keeping Hanna at bay, else we'd be dealing with it as soon as Thursday morning.

One of the cool things Weather Underground does is provide the historical track of previous storms. There was also a site that had a map of ALL the hurricanes in recorded history. It was pretty cool to look at. I would have to dig to find it, though I may have posted the link here once a long time ago (2004ish).

Historical Tracks of the Current Storms (note the deviation in some of them). Also note that one of the storms Josephine is on hit NY. And I think NY is our next "Katrina" waiting to happen.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
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Postby kanaloa on Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:17 pm

These are "fun" to look at bc you can see how they steer the Hurricanes.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jh.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Note that the last image has Ike going into the Gulf; and the typical Bermuda high that's 'forcing' it south. That's Hanna up near the arctic, it's gonna book it up the east coast once it gets past that High.
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Postby phileysmiley on Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:23 pm

kanaloa wrote:There was also a site that had a map of ALL the hurricanes in recorded history.

That's exactly what I was looking for! I searched and searched Google and the best I could come up with were those links I posted, or the Wunderground maps of previous storms one-by-one. I really wanted to find one map with the tracks of all storms on it.
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Postby kanaloa on Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:25 pm

I think I found it. I think it's here:

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Edit: :yesnod: That's it. Great tool.
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