Is it the end of the line for the PC already?

Anja Merret

An interesting article by an AP reporter talks about the decline in PC sales in Japan. It comes just a few days after a debate with some friends found us mulling over the same issue. My idea that the life of the PC was limited and that the computer as we know it was on its way out was shot down in flames. I was especially on a no-win streak as I couldn’t come up with anything sensible as an alternative!

The report by Hiroko Tabuchi states that PC shipments to Japan have fallen for five consecutive quarters and Japan is considered a key market in this industry. The trend is noticeable across the board for desktops and laptops. Sales are also slowing in America. The only growth is still being experienced in the developing world.

The question that begs an answer is: What is replacing the PC? That is not that easy to answer. Possibly one should rather ask: What was the computer being used for that is now being served by other tech gadgets?

More at: Mail & Guardian Online

I dunno folks. It's going to take more than the current 'gadgets' out there to move me from my PC

I still see a more internet based model forthcoming. The PC, in the traditional sense, is very much on the way out I think. So long as internet speed, security, and application developers stay the course, we'll have a complete online experience within 3-5 years I think.

In fact, I'll be shocked if Microsoft actually releases another traditional version of Windows beyond Vista.

I think we'll always have to have a least a barebones system... graphics, sound, wireless card, ports (usb and the like), etc... but the need for hard drives and an OS aren't as critical anymore.

I think that a good reason that PCs have not sold as much as usual is that to a normal person, the PC has not gotten much faster over the last 5 years. A majority of people do only a few things on computers, including e-mail, web browsing, picture viewing, music listening, video watching, and other simple things that any 5 year old PC can easily do.

The only people that really need a new and faster PC are the ones that are into intensive gaming, video conversion, high speed audio compression, etc.

As an example, I have a Pentium 4 PC that I bought in October of 2001 with a 1.8GHz processor, 512MB of RAM, and an 80GB hard drive. Almost any average teenager or even average adult would be completely satisfied with its performance with Windows XP and have no reason to replace it, even though it is 6 YEARS OLD!

Now for me, as soon as I can convince my wife that my Pentium D 3.0GHz is slow, I am going Quad-core!

Well said mnemonicj, my 5 year old 1GHz Celeron performs just great for day to day stuff, I 'only' bought my 2 year old AMD for video conversion and upgraded the CPU recently to an X2 3800+.

Another thing is the market is already saturated so it's now basically people getting a second or third PC or just replacing their older hardware, though I replaced the PSU on my Celly and it's still humming along nicely folding it's little heart away 24/7. Only thing I might replace on that old rig is the monitor with a cheap LCD as the CRT shows too much green.

Hehe@Quad-core. I'm still working on that one.

I have to admit... if you'd told me in 2003 that the same computer I owned then would suffice for most of my work in the year 2008 I'd have laughed at you.

But since then I've only obtained ONE new computer and I still use the 2003 model all the time. In fact, I think it's an excellent computer. We still use one from 2001 as well.

I'd have thought that was crazy talk a few years ago, especially at the speed things were moving.

Grav!ty wrote:

I dunno folks. It's going to take more than the current 'gadgets' out there to move me from my PC

Hey, wait until they have a Dick Tracy watch! You thought cellphone videos were bad. I can't understand what the allure is, grab a good book to read.

in the end it ends up being a pc, whatever shape or form it is still a personal computer.

In part perhaps. More of a VPC (Virtual PC) really, especially if your applications and data are not located on your "box."

kanaloa wrote:

In part perhaps. More of a VPC (Virtual PC) really, especially if your applications and data are not located on your "box."

There's little doubt we are moving to an era of "online subcription software". See my post about it here. I too think this will change how we use our PC systems and what hardware we opt for