It depends... if Bermuda has a High over it (and the jet is north, like now)... this thing could stay straight as an arrow. It's funny how they squeeze between the H's on the map sometimes. Honestly, if Bermuda High's didn't exist, I'm not even sure the north coast would see that many storms at all. The current is pretty strong along the eastern seaboard.

kanaloa wrote:

What kinda bothers me is that the East Coast as a whole (not Florida) is WAY overdue for a major storm. Think about the last few years... hardly anything on the East Coast.

we've had some really big storms in this area this summer. So far there have been to near floodings here on campus, with the last one being very close to doing so. a stream rose 10 feet in about an hour of rain. We also had a major hail storm, which almost never happens here. For about 30 minutes straight, there was hail that was bigger than a pea, closer to the size of a spherical dime. I've never seen so much hail in my life before.

It's scary. But it's just "regular" climatic change. *uh huh*

LOL

kanaloa wrote:

It depends... if Bermuda has a High over it (and the jet is north, like now)... this thing could stay straight as an arrow. It's funny how they squeeze between the H's on the map sometimes. Honestly, if Bermuda High's didn't exist, I'm not even sure the north coast would see that many storms at all. The current is pretty strong along the eastern seaboard.

As I suspected.... this is the forecast for 3-4 days out.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jh.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif

Check out that lovely blue H.

By the looks of it, it's the Key's that are in trouble. And possibly the gulf.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

It's going to get blocked by another high over the south east.

Then it goes into the gulf... and who knows.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nh.gif

Yeah, I think it's called "Summer"...........lol

I dated a girl named Summer once. She also was hot. And like most summer weather, subject to frequent storms and occasionally downpoors. Then there was the rogue hurricane usually influence by the "local weather" in which case it had no idea what direction, if any, it wanted to go. But when it did... you got out of the way.

LOL @ John, been there done that! Except for the name

Well, it's almost a hurricane now. Prob will be in less than 12 hours.

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

NOAA/NHC

Yeah, it's now being forecast to become a hurricane while the track doesn't seem to have changed much. If you look at the satellite images you can see it's pretty well organized for it's current strength.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCIALES AND ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

NOAA/NHC

I think it was yesterday morning when this storm all of a sudden just got torn apart and now it's just a TD and expected to only re-intensify back to a TS. I wasn't even sure if it would even be a TD looking at the sat images yesterday.