Forecasts & Updates:

April 2005 Hurricane Forecast Updates || May 2005 Hurricane Forecast Updates

Forecast & Current Outlook Map

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CURRENT STORMS:

TS Frank (July 2005) - Atlantic

??? TD Gert (July 2005) - Atlantic


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PAST STORMS:


TS Arlene (June 2005) - Atlantic

TS Bret (June 2005) - Atlantic

TS Cindy (July 2005) - Atlantic

HUR Dennis (July 2005) - Atlantic

HUR Emily (July 2005) - Atlantic

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OTHER NEWS:

Hurricane Names in 2005

This comes after one of the most active and destructive years (2004) on record for the NA Nations. Last year not only was record settings for NA, but it was a season that broke records of all sorts... including how far North Hurricanes formed, to where they hit (including South America, never before seen).


Check below for updates and additional information as the season progresses.

Above average hurricane season expected in 2005


FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — Forecasters at Colorado State University said Friday that the Atlantic basin will see "significantly above average" hurricane activity this season,
William Gray and his team said they expect 13 named storms will form between June 1 and Nov. 30. Of those, seven are expected to develop into hurricanes, including three major storms with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

In December, the CSU team predicted 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The forecasts are regularly updated. The long-term average for the Atlantic-Caribbean region is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes each year. Forecasters said an El Nino weather event in the Pacific will probably not be significant this year, raising the likelihood of a more active storm season in the Atlantic. El Nino usually helps decrease storm activity when active.

"All of the information we have collected and analyzed through March indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one," said Gray, who has forecast Atlantic hurricanes for 22 years. The forecast also calls for a considerably higher than average probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the United States: 73%, compared with the long-term average probability of 52%.

For the East Coast, including Florida, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 53% (long-term average, 31%). For the Gulf Coast, from Florida west to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 41% (30 percent). The storm seasons from 1995 through 2004 comprised the most active 10 consecutive hurricane years on record and this year is expected to follow suit.

"We think that the United States has entered a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity reflective of the high activity during eight of the last 10 years," said Philip Klotzbach, atmospheric research scientist and forecast team member. "We expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to span the next two or three decades."

Gray's team will issue seasonal updates of the hurricane season forecast on May 31, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 3. NOAA will issue it's forecast in May 2005.


John Derrick

NOAA also predicts above average 2005 hurricane season

May 16, 2005 — NOAA hurricane forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season on the heels of last year's destructive and historic hurricane season. "NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator at a news conference today in Bay St. Louis, Miss. "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high."

NOAA image of 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.NOAA's Atlantic hurricane outlook reflects an expected continuation of above-average activity that began in 1995. Since that time all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above-normal. Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends November 30.

"Impacts from hurricanes, tropical storms and their remnants do not stop at the coast," states retired Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. "As we kick off National Hurricane Preparedness Week and look at another highly active season, preparation plans should consider that these storms carry severe weather, such as tornadoes and flooding, while moving inland."

Although it's too soon to predict where and when a storm may hit land, NOAA still cautions the public to be prepared.

"Last year's hurricane season provided a reminder that planning and preparation for a hurricane do make a difference. Residents in hurricane vulnerable areas who had a plan, and took individual responsibility for acting on those plans, faired far better than those who did not," said Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center.

NOAA image of the conditions that will make the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season above average.An update to the Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August just prior to the season's historical peak from late August through October.

In contrast to the Atlantic, a below-normal hurricane season is expected in the Eastern and Central Pacific. NOAA's outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, also released today, calls for 11-15 tropical storms, with six to eight becoming hurricanes of which two to four may become major hurricanes. Two or three tropical cyclones are projected for the Central Pacific.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane outlook is a joint product of scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated numerical models and high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. Scientists rely on information gathered by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into the storms in hurricane hunter aircraft; NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense satellites; NOAA data buoys, weather radars and partners among the international meteorological services.

Updated on May 18, 2005 - Tropical Storm Adrian (Pacific)

Updates may be delayed after this until June 4, 2005. I will be on vacation. Thanks

Updated on June 09, 2005 - Tropical Storm Arlene (Atlantic)

Updated on July 6, 2005.

Updated July 11, 2005

Updated July 14, 2005

Emily is now officially a Hurricane.

Updated... likely formation of Tropical Storm Franklin and possibly Tropical Depression 8, or Tropical Storm Gert.